Mix-n-Match : Ensemble and Compositional Methods for Uncertainty Calibration in Deep Learning

Part of Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning 1 pre-proceedings (ICML 2020)

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Authors

Jize Zhang, Bhavya Kailkhura, T. Yong-Jin Han

Abstract

<p>This paper studies the problem of post-hoc calibration of machine learning classifiers. We introduce the following desiderata for uncertainty calibration: (a) accuracy-preserving, (b) data-efficient, and (c) high expressive power. We show that none of the existing methods satisfy all three requirements, and demonstrate how Mix-n-Match calibration strategies (i.e., ensemble and composition) can help achieve remarkably better data-efficiency and expressive power while provably preserving classification accuracy of the original classifier. We also show that existing calibration error estimators (e.g., histogram-based ECE) are unreliable especially in small-data regime. Therefore, we propose an alternative data-efficient kernel density-based estimator for a reliable evaluation of the calibration performance and prove its asymptotically unbiasedness and consistency.</p>